Economic Determinants of Rupee-Dollar Exchange Rates

Authors

  • Sadaf Amjad Balochistan University of Information Technology, Engineering & Management Sciences, Quetta, Pakistan

Abstract

The objective of this study is to examine the economic determinants of USD-PKR exchange rate. This study uses four independent variables (i.e., inflation rate, interest rate, GDP and money supply) and one dependent variable (i.e., USD-PKR exchange rate). We have used a dataset for the period 2008 to 2017. The data was retrieved from the official websites of the State Bank of Pakistan, the World Bank, and the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics. Several diagnostic tests were applied before multiple regression. The results suggest that the money supply and interest rate have a positive relationship with the USD-PKR exchange rate while we found an insignificant relationship between inflation rate and USD-PKR exchange rate. The main limitation of this study is that it uses data from Pakistan only. Future research may use cross-country data to examine the relationships between these variables.Keywords: Exchange rate, inflation rate, money supply, interest rate, GDP, Pakistan.

References

Abbas, Z., Khan, S. & Rizvi, S.T.H. (2011). Exchange rates and macroeconomic fundamentals: linear

regression and cointegration analysis on emerging Asian economies. International Review of

Business Research Papers, 7(3), 250–263.

Abdoh, W. M. Y. M., Yusuf, N. H. M., Zulkifli, S. A. M., Bulot, N. & Ibrahim, N. J. (2016). Macroeconomic

factors that influence exchange rate fluctuation in ASEAN countries. International Academic

Research Journal of Social Science, 2(1), 89-94.

Achsani, N. A., Fauzi, A. J. F. A. & Abdullah, P. (2010). The relationship between inflation and real

exchange rate: Comparative study between Asean+ 3, the EU, and North America. European

Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Sciences, 18, 1450-2275.

Ahmed, H. (2009). Capital flows and real exchange rate overvaluation—A chronic ailment: Evidence

from Pakistan. The Lahore Journal of Economics, 14, 51–86

Algieri, B. (2011). Determinants of the real effective exchange rate in the Russian Federation. The

Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, 15(2), 1–25.

Asari, F. F. A. H., Baharuddin, N. S., Jusoh, N., Mohamad, Z., Shamsudin, N. & Jusoff, K. (2011). A vector

error correction model (VECM) approach in explaining the relationship between the interest rate

and inflation towards exchange rate volatility in Malaysia. World Applied Sciences Journal, 12(3),

-56.

Auboin, M. & Ruta, M. (2013). The relationship between exchange rates and international trade: a

literature review. World Trade Review, 12(3), 577-605.

Bailliu, J., Lafrance, R. & Perrault, J.F. (2003). Does exchange rate policy matter for growth? International

Finance, 6(3), 381–414.

Behera, J. (2016). Dynamics of inflation, economic growth, money supply and exchange rate in India:

Evidence from multivariate analysis. Quarterly Journal of Econometrics Research, 2(2), 42-54

Carvalho, Carlos, Fernanda Nechio, Fang Yao. (2019). Monetary Policy and Real Exchange Rate

Dynamics in Sticky-Price Models, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Working Paper 2014-17.

http://www.frbsf.org/economicresearch/publications/working-papers/wp2014-17.pdf

Clostermann, J. & Schnatz, B. (2000). The determinants of the euro-dollar exchange rate-Synthetic

fundamentals and a non-existing currency. Discussion Paper, {Avaialble} https://www.econstor.

eu/bitstream/10419/19530/1/200002dkp.pdf

Cúrdia, V. & Woodford, M. (2016). Credit frictions and optimal monetary policy. Journal of Monetary

Economics, 84, 30-65.

Dornbusch, R., Sturzenegger, F., Wolf, H., Fischer, S. & Barro, R. J. (1990). Extreme inflation: dynamics

and stabilization. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1990 (2), 1-84.

Dutta, S., Ghosh, D. & Chatterjee, S. (2016). Multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis of

foreign exchange and SENSEX fluctuation from the Indian perspective. Physica A: Statistical

Mechanics and its Applications, 463, 188-201.

Ebaidalla, E. M. (2016). Understanding the sources of exchange rate fluctuation in Sudan. Eastern

Africa Social Science Research Review, 32(1), 21-40.

Engel, C. (2019). Real exchange rate convergence: The roles of price stickiness and monetary policy.

Journal of Monetary Economics, 103, 21-32.

Ferguson, N. (2008). The ascent of money: A financial history of the world. Penguin.

Frankel, J.A. & Rose, A.K. (1996). Currency crashes in emerging markets: An empirical treatment.

Journal of International Economics, 41(3), 351–366.

Gala, P. & Lucinda, C.R. (2006). Exchange rate misalignment and growth: Old and new econometric

evidence. Revista Economia, 7(4), 165–187.

Gente, K. & Ledesma, M.A.L. (2006). Does the world real interest rate affect the real exchange rate?

The southeast Asian experience. The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development,

(4), 441–467.

Ghosh, A. R., Ostry, J. D. & Chamon, M. (2016). Two targets, two instruments: Monetary and exchange

rate policies in emerging market economies. Journal of International Money and Finance, 60, 172-

Gong, P. & Dai, J. (2017). Monetary policy, exchange rate fluctuation, and herding behavior in the

stock market. Journal of Business Research, 76, 34-43.

Huang, K. X. & Liu, Z. (2005). Inflation targeting: What inflation rate to target?. Journal of Monetary

Economics, 52(8), 1435-1462.

Isola, L. A., Oluwafunke, A. I., Victor, A. & Asaleye, A. (2016). Exchange rate fluctuation and the Nigeria

economic growth. EuroEconomica, 35(2), 127-142.

Khan, M.A. & Qayyum, A. 2011. Exchange rate determination in Pakistan: Role of monetary

fundamentals. Journal of Economic Cooperation and Development, 32(2), 67–96.

Khattak, N.U.R., Tariq, M. & Khan, J. (2012). Factors affecting nominal interest rate of Pakistan: An

econometric investigation. Asian Economic and Financial Review, 2(2), 421–428.

Kiley, M. T. & Roberts, J. M. (2017). Monetary policy in a low-interest rate world. Brookings Papers on

Economic Activity, 2017(1), 317-396.

López-Villavicencio, A. & Mignon, V. (2017). Exchange rate pass-through in emerging countries: Do

the inflation environment, monetary policy regime, and central bank behavior matter?. Journal

of International Money and Finance, 79, 20-38.

Liew, V. K. S., Baharumshah, A. Z. & Puah, C.H. 2009. Monetary model of exchange rate for Thailand:

Long-run relationship and monetary restrictions. Global Economic Review: Perspectives on East

Asian Economies and Industries, 38(4), 385–395.

Lucas, R.E., 1972. Expectations and the neutrality of money. Journal of Economic Theory, 4(2), 103-

Madura, J. (2000). International Financial Management. 6th edition, South-Western College Publishing.

Meese, R. A. & Rose, A. K. 1991. An empirical assessment of non-linearities in models of exchange

rate determination. The Review of Economic Studies, 58(3), 603-619.

Mirchandani, A. (2013). Analysis of macroeconomic determinants of exchange rate volatility in India.

International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 3(1), 172–179.

Mishchenko, V., Naumenkova, S., Mishchenko, S. & Ivanov, V. (2018). Inflation and economic growth:

the search for a compromise for the Central Bank’s monetary policy. Banks & Bank Systems, (13)(

, 153-163.

Mishra, A. & Yadav, R. (2012). Exchange rate behavior and management in India: Issues and empirics.

International Journal of Economics, Commerce and Research, 2(4), 9-16.

Mushtaq, S. & Siddiqui, D. A.(2016). Effect of interest rate on economic performance: evidence from

Islamic and non-Islamic economies. Financial Innovation, 2(1), 9-17

Neumeyer, P. & Perri, F. (2005). Business cycles in emerging economies: The role of interest rates.

Journal of Monetary Economics, 52(2), 345–380.

Niggle, C. J. (1990). The evolution of money, financial institutions, and monetary economics. Journal

of Economic Issues, 24(2), 443-450.

Nordin, N. (2020). The impact of commodity prices, interest rate and exchange rate on stock market

performance: An empirical analysis from Malaysia. Malaysian Management Journal, 18, 39-52.

Parveen, S. Khan, A.Q. & Ismail, M. 2012. Analysis of the factors affecting exchange rate variability in

Pakistan. Academic Research International, 2(3), 670–674.

Qiang, W., Lin, A., Zhao, C., Liu, Z., Liu, M. & Wang, X. (2019). The impact of international crude oil

price fluctuation on the exchange rate of petroleum-importing countries: a summary of recent

studies. Natural Hazards, 95(1-2), 227-239.

Rafiq, S. (2010). Fiscal stance, the current account and the real exchange rate: Some empirical

estimates from a time-varying framework. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 21(4), 276-

Raithatha, M. (2012). A conceptual study on the fluctuation of rupee in relation to dollar. Zenith

International Journal of Business Economics & Management Research, 2(3), 266-274.

Raza, S. A. & Afshan, S. (2017). Determinants of exchange rate in Pakistan: Revisited with structural

break testing. Global Business Review, 18(4), 825-848.

Rohit, A. K. & Dash, P. (2019). Dynamics of monetary policy spillover: The role of exchange rate

regimes. Economic Modelling, 77, 276-288.

Rossi, B. (2013). Exchange rate predictability. Journal of Economic Literature, 51(4), 1063-1119.

Saeed, A., Awan, R.U., Sial, MH & Sher, F. (2012). An econometric analysis of determinants of exchange

rates in Pakistan. International Journal of Business and Social Science, 3(6), 184–196.

Saraç, T. B. & Karagöz, K. (2016). Impact of short-term interest rate on exchange rate: the case of

Turkey. Procedia Economics and Finance, 38(1), 195-202.

Senay, O. & Sutherland, A. (2019). Optimal monetary policy, exchange rate misalignments, and

incomplete financial markets. Journal of International Economics, 117, 196-208.

Saunders, A. & Cornett, M. M. (2003). Financial Institutions Management: A Risk Management Approach.

Irwin/McGraw-Hill.

Tiryaki, A., Ceylan, R. & ErdoÄŸan, L. (2019). Asymmetric effects of industrial production, money

supply, and exchange rate changes on stock returns in Turkey. Applied Economics, 51(20), 2143-

v

Wilson, I. 2009. The monetary approach to exchange rates: A brief review and empirical investigation

of debt, deficit, and debt management: Evidence from the United States. The Journal of Business

Inquiry, 8(1), 83–99.

Zheng, L., Jiang, Y. & Long, H. (2019). Exchange rates change asset-denominated currency difference

and stock price fluctuation. Applied Economics, 51(60), 6517-6534.

Downloads

Published

2020-07-11